Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV (Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV) Predictability Rank

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What is Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV (Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Chicago Bridge & Iron Co NV (NYSE:CBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cbi.com

Founded in 1889, Chicago Bridge & Iron provides a wide range of services, including conceptual design, technology, engineering, procurement, fabrication, modularization, construction, commissioning, maintenance, program management, and environmental services, to customers in the global energy infrastructure market. It also provides diversified government services. It generated 2017 adjusted revenue and adjusted EBIT of $5.8 billion and a loss of $180 million, respectively. CB&I employs 34,000 at active projects in more than 70 countries.

Executives

James H Miller	director	C/O CROWN HOLDINGS, INC., 770 TOWNSHIP LINE ROAD, YARDLEY PA 19067
W Craig Kissel	director
Alexander Forbes I J	director	10560 DR. MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. ST N, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716-3718
Deborah M Fretz	director	1801 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
L Richard Flury	director	2000 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY S, SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77042
Richard W. Heo	officer: Executive Vice President	2103 RESEARCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Westley S. Stockton	officer: VP, Controller, CAO	2103 RESEARCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
James R Bolch	director	C/O INGERSOLL-RAND COMPANY, 155 CHESTNUT RIDGE ROAD, MONTVALE NJ 07645
Marsha C Williams	director	EQUITY OFFICE PROPERTIES, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael S Taff	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	777 N ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77079
Larry D Mcvay	director	2000 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY S, SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77042
Philip K Asherman	director, officer: President and CEO	1450 LAKE ROBBINS DR.,, SUITE 400, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Chandler Richard E Jr	officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer	1800 HUGHES LANDING BLVD, SUITE 250, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Sheila B Feldman	officer: Executive Vice President
Ronald A Ballschmiede	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	1800 HUGHES LANDING BLVD, SUITE 250, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380