Cryo-Cell International (Cryo-Cell International) Predictability Rank

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What is Cryo-Cell International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cryo-Cell International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cryo-Cell International (Cryo-Cell International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Cryo-Cell International Inc (AMEX:CCEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZCY:Germany

Address

700 Brooker Creek Boulevard, Suite 1800, Oldsmar, FL, USA, 34677

Website

https://www.cryo-cell.com

Cryo-Cell International Inc is engaged in cellular processing and cryogenic storage. The company is organized into three reportable segments namely cellular processing and cryogenic storage, with a focus on the collection and preservation of umbilical cord blood and tissue stem cells for family use and the manufacturing of Prepacyte CB units segment, which is a processing technology used to process umbilical cord blood stem cells. The Public cord blood banking segment consists of cellular processing and cryogenic storage of umbilical cord blood stem cells for public use. All the business activity of the group functions through the United States and it derives revenue from processing and testing fees and storage fees charged each year for storage and through sales of the Prepacyte CB units.

Executives

David Portnoy	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O FOCUS FINANCIAL GROUP, 61 HARBOUR WAY, BAL HARBOUR FL 33154
George Gaines	director	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Jonathan H. Wheeler	director	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Brian L. Sheehy	director	415 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark L. Portnoy	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Harold D. Berger	director	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Arthur Ellis	director	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD, SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Mary J Nyberg	10 percent owner	455 E MAYO BLVD, UNIT 5202, PHOENIX AZ 85050
Cdmj Nyberg Family Trust	10 percent owner	455 E MAYO BLVD, UNIT 5202, PHOENIX AZ 85050
Jill M Taymans	officer: VP, Finance, CFO
Oleg Mikulinsky	officer: Chief Information Officer	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD., SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Anthony Atala	director	700 BROOKER CREEK BOULEVARD, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Scott G Christian	director
Sung Won Sohn	director	700 BROOKER CREEK BLVD., SUITE 1800, OLDSMAR FL 34677
Michael W. Cho	director	C/O IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY, 1600 S. 16TH STREET, AMES IA 50011-1250