Coca-Cola HBC AG (Coca-Cola HBC AG) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2013. Start your Free Trial

What is Coca-Cola HBC AG Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coca-Cola HBC AG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Coca-Cola HBC AG Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Coca-Cola HBC AG's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Coca-Cola HBC AG (Coca-Cola HBC AG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Coca-Cola HBC AG (OTCPK:CCHGY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CCHBF:USA EEE:Greece CCHl:UK CCH:UK C0Q:Germany

Address

Turmstrasse 26, Steinhausen, CHE, CH-6312

Website

https://www.coca-colahellenic.com

Coca-Cola HBC, or HBC, is the third-largest bottling partner in the Coca-Cola system by volume, behind Coca-Cola FEMSA and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, or CCEP. In 2022, HBC sold 2.7 billion unit cases of beverages. For context, Coke's largest bottler, Coke FEMSA, sold 3.75 billion unit cases in Latin America, and the second-largest, CCEP, serving Europe, Southeast Asia, and the South Pacific region, sold 3.3 billion unit cases. There is a long tail of Coke distributors, including brewers and independent operators with very small distribution territories.HBC is listed on the LSE. Kar-Tess, a Luxembourg-based holding company, owns 23% of the equity of HBC, and The Coca-Cola Company, or TCCC, holds a further 21%. The remaining 56% is free float.

Coca-Cola HBC AG (Coca-Cola HBC AG) Headlines

From GuruFocus

3 Greek Stocks to Consider AFTER the Default

By Charles Sizemore Charles Sizemore • 09-27-2011

An Investment Idea from Broyhill Asset Management - Coca-Cola Hellenic

By CanadianValue CanadianValue • 12-18-2012