CCUR Holdings (CCUR Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is CCUR Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CCUR Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CCUR Holdings (CCUR Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » CCUR Holdings Inc (OTCPK:CCUR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6470 East Johns Crossing, Suite 490, Duluth, GA, USA, 30097

Website

http://www.ccurholdings.com

CCUR Holdings Inc operates through its subsidiary LM Capital Solutions, LLC, which identifies and places capital with originators of merchant cash advance (MCA) financings with established track records of MCA underwriting and servicing excellence, and through its subsidiary Recur Holdings, LLC, which conducts, holds and manages real estate operations. It is also actively evaluating for acquisition purposes additional operating businesses and assets to maximize the value of its assets. The business segments are MCA segment and real estate operations, with maximum revenue from MCA segment.

Executives

Julian D. Singer	10 percent owner	2200 FLETCHER AVENUE, SUITE 501, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Robert M Pons	director	439 WILLIAMSON ROAD, GLADWYNE PA 19035
Igor Volshteyn	officer: Interim President and COO	6470 EAST JOHNS CROSSING, DULUTH GA 30097
Wayne Jr Barr	director, officer: CEO	ANACOMP INC, 15378 AVENUE OF SCIENCE, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
David J Nicol	director	9777 PYRAMID COURT 100, C/O EVOLVING SYSTEMS INC, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Steven G Singer	director	2200 FLETCHER AVENUE, SUITE 501, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Warren Sutherland	officer: CFO	4375 RIVER GREEN PARKWAY SUITE 100 DULUTH 2Q 30096
Dilip Singh	director	333 NE 21ST AVENUE, UNIT 1110, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33441
Emory O Berry	officer: CFO & EVP of Operations	4220 BERKELEY VIEW DRIVE DULUTH GA 30096
Derek Elder	officer: President and CEO	4375 RIVER GREEN PARKWAY, SUITE 100, DULUTH GA 30096
Larry L Enterline	director	2709 WATER RIDGE PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28217
R Charles Blackmon	director	C/O INTERLINE BRANDS, INC. 801 W. BAY STREET JACKSONVILLE FL 32004-1605
Steve Nussrallah	director
C Shelton James	director	GROUP LONG DISTANCE INC, 1451 W CYPRESS CREEK RD STE 200, FT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Dan Mondor	director, officer: President and CEO	4375 RIVER GREEN PARKWAY, SUITE 100, DULUTH GA 30096