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Central Garden & Pet Co (Central Garden & Pet Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Central Garden & Pet Co Predictability Rank?

3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Central Garden & Pet Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Central Garden & Pet Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Central Garden & Pet Co (Central Garden & Pet Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Central Garden & Pet Co (NAS:CENT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
JJSF NOMD THS SMPL KLG UTZ JBSS HLF BRCC USNA XSWX:NESN KHC XPAR:BN GIS SHSE:603288 NSE:NESTLEIND SHSE:600887 LSE:ABF SZSE:300999 BIMBOA
Traded in Other Exchanges
CENTA:USA GP7:Germany
Address
1340 Treat Boulevard, Suite 600, Walnut Creek, CA, USA, 94597
Website
https://www.central.com
Central Garden & Pet Co understands that home is central to life and has nurtured happy and healthy homes for over forty years. The segments of the company are the pet segment and garden segment. The company's trusted products are dedicated to helping lawns grow greener, gardens bloom bigger, pets live healthier and communities grow stronger. Central is home to a portfolio of more than sixty-five brands including Pennington, Nylabone, Kaytee, Amdro, and Aqueon, manufacturing and distribution capabilities, and a passionate, entrepreneurial growth culture. Central Garden and Pet is based in Walnut Creek, California, and has offices across North America and Europe.
Executives
John Edward Hanson officer: Senior Vice President C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
John Ranelli director C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Brooks Iii Pennington director 1280 ATLANTA HWY, MADISON GA 30650
Howard Machek officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BLVD #600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
William E Brown director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman 3697 MOUNT DIABLO BLVD, SUITE 310, LAFAYETTE CA 94549
Nicholas Lahanas officer: Chief Financial Officer 4666 MISSION AVENUE, SUITE 1, SAN DIEGO CA 92116
George A. Yuhas officer: General Counsel C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Brendan Dougher director C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Thomas J Colligan director CORGENTECH INC, 650 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John Balousek director 303 PEACHTREE CENTER AVE, SUITE 500, ALTANTA GA 30303
William Lawrence Lynch officer: Senior Vice President C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BLOULEVARD SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597
Mary Beth Springer director SPRINGER MARY BETH, 111 SYCAMORE AVENUE, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Michael Edwards director BORDERS GROUP, INC., 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Christopher T Metz director BLACK & DECKER CORP, 701 EAST JOPPA ROAD, TOWSON MD 21286
Kay Schwichtenberg officer: Executive Vice President C/O CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY, 1340 TREAT BOULEVARD, SUITE 600, WALNUT CREEK CA 94597