Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings (Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings (Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings Inc (NAS:CERE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

673:Germany

Address

222 Jacobs Street, Suite 200, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02141

Website

https://www.cerevel.com

Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings Inc is dedicated to unraveling the mysteries of the brain to treat neuroscience diseases. The company is tackling neuroscience diseases with a differentiated approach that combines expertise in neurocircuitry with a focus on receptor selectivity. It has a diversified pipeline comprising five clinical-stage investigational therapies and several preclinical compounds with the potential to treat a range of neuroscience diseases, including schizophrenia, epilepsy, Parkinson's disease and substance use disorder. Cerevel Therapeutics is advancing its current research and development programs while exploring new modalities through internal research efforts, external collaborations or potential acquisitions.

Executives

N Anthony Coles	director, officer: See Remarks	MORRIS CORP. CENTER I; BLDG. B; 4TH FLR., 300 INTERPACE PARKWAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Ramiro Sanchez	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CEREVELL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INC., 131 DARTMOUTH STREET SUITE 502, BOSTON MA 02116
Kenneth Dipietro	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 133 BOSTON POST ROAD, WESTON MA 02493
Susan Altschuller	officer: Chief Financial Officer	45 TENNYSON ST., SOMERVILLE MA 02145
Mark Bodenrader	officer: See Remarks	C/O CEREVEL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS INC., 131 DARTMOUTH STREET SUITE 502, BOSTON MA 02116
Kathleen Tregoning	officer: See Remarks	C/O CEREVEL THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 131 DARTMOUTH STREET SUITE 502, BOSTON MA 02116
Scott Akamine	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O AEON BIOPHARMA, INC., 4040 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 260, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Deval L Patrick	director	BAIN CAPITAL, LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Adam Koppel	director	C/O BROOKSIDE CAPITAL, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON ST, BOSTON MA 02116
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	director	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Christopher R Gordon	director	C/O BAIN CAPITAL, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Investors Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Paul D. Burgess	officer: See Remarks	C/O TRANSLATE BIO, INC., 29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Renaud Ronald C Jr	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 60 HAMPSHIRE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02109
Marijn E Dekkers	director	GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, 41 FARNSWORTH STREET, BOSTON MA 02210