Cerner (Cerner) Predictability Rank

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What is Cerner Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cerner Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cerner (Cerner) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Cerner Corp (NAS:CERN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2800 Rock creek Parkway, North Kansas City, MO, USA, 64117

Website

https://www.cerner.com

Cerner is a leading supplier of healthcare information technology solutions and tech-enabled services. The company is a long-standing market leader in the electronic health record industry, and along with rival Epic Systems corners a majority of the market for acute care EHR within health systems. The company is guided by the mission of the founding partners to provide seamless medical records across all healthcare providers to improve outcomes. Beyond medical records, the company offers a wide range of technology that supports the clinical, financial, and operational needs of healthcare facilities.

Executives

Michael R. Battaglioli	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
Tracy L Platt	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
Nasim Afsarmanesh	officer: EVP & Chief Health Officer	2800 ROCK CREEK PARKWAY NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
David T Feinberg	director, officer: President and CEO	1299 OCEAN AVENUE, SUITE 1000, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Daniel Devers	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
Mark J Erceg	officer: Exec. VP & CFO	248 E. SKYLINE DRIVE, WASHINGTON UT 84780
William D Zollars	director	10777 BARKLEY, PO BOX 7563, OVERLAND PARK KS 66207-0563
Travis Dalton	officer: EVP & Chief Client & Serv. Off	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
John Peterzalek	other: President, Cerner South East
Elder Granger	director	5176 S. LEWISTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80015
George Andrew Riedel	director	C/O NORTEL NETWORKS CORPORATION, 8200 DIXIE ROAD, SUITE 100, BRAMPTON A6 L6T 5P6
Bisbee Gerald E Jr	director	C/O CERNER CORP 2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY KANSAS CITY MO 64117-2551
Linda M Dillman	director	5221 PRESTWICK NORTH CIRCLE FAYETTEVILLE AR 72704
David Brent Shafer	director	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY, NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117
Donald Trigg	officer: SVP	2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY NORTH KANSAS CITY MO 64117