Capitol Federal Financial (Capitol Federal Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Capitol Federal Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Capitol Federal Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Capitol Federal Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Capitol Federal Financial (Capitol Federal Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Capitol Federal Financial Inc (NAS:CFFN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CFW:Germany

Address

700 South Kansas Avenue, Topeka, KS, USA, 66603

Website

https://www.capfed.com

Capitol Federal Financial Inc is a bank holding company that operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary bank, Capitol Federal Savings Bank. The bank is a community-oriented financial institution that offers a variety of financial services through tens of locations. It primarily serves metropolitan areas within the state of Kansas. The bank performs traditional banking functions such as deposit-taking activities and investing that money in first-lien residential mortgages. It also participates in commercial real estate loans with other lenders, investing those funds in various securities. The vast majority of the bank's loan portfolio is in originated one- to four-family real estate loans. Its primary source of income is net interest income.

Executives

Anthony S. Barry	officer: EVP, Corporate Services	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC., 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Jeffrey M Johnson	director	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL INC, 700 KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Carlton A. Ricketts	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66601
Rick C Jackson	officer: Executive Vice President	CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 SOUTH KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
James G. Morris	director	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC., 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Natalie G. Haag	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Jeffrey R Thompson	director	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Skrobacz William Joseph Jr	officer: Executive Vice President	700 S KANSAS AVE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Robert D. Kobbeman	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Banking	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC., 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Huey Morris J Ii	director, officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Michel Philipp Cole	director	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC., 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
John B Dicus	director, officer: Chairman and President	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 SOUTH KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Daniel L. Lehman	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, INC., 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Kent G Townsend	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 S. KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603
Marilyn S Ward	director	C/O CAPITOL FEDERAL FINANCIAL, 700 KANSAS AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66603