Cognex (Cognex) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1989. Start your Free Trial

What is Cognex Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cognex Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cognex Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cognex's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cognex (Cognex) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cognex Corp (NAS:CGNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CGNX:Mexico CGZ:Germany CGZ:Germany

Address

One Vision Drive, Natick, MA, USA, 01760-2059

Website

https://www.cognex.com

Cognex Corp provides machine vision products that help automate manufacturing processes. The firm's products include vision software, vision systems, vision sensors, and ID products. Vision software combines vision tools with a customer's own cameras and peripheral equipment and can help with several vision tasks, including part location, identification, measurement, and robotic guidance. Vision systems combine a camera, processor, and vision software into a single package. Vision sensors deliver simple, low-cost solutions for common vision applications, such as checking the size of parts. ID products read codes that have been applied to items during the manufacturing process. Cognex generates the largest proportion of its sales in the United States and Europe.

Executives

Angelos Papadimitriou	director	1 VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Patrick Alias	director
Theodor Krantz	director	ONE VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Joerg Kuechen	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1 VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Paul Todgham	officer: SVP, CFO	1 VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Anthony Sun	director	2494 SAND HILL RD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Dianne M Parrotte	director	1 VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
John Tseng-chung Lee	director	90 INDUSTRIAL WAY, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Carl Gerst	officer: EVP, Vision & ID Products	1 VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Marjorie T. Sennett	director	950 TOWER LANE, 6TH FLOOR, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Jerry A. Schneider	director	ONE VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Sachin Lawande	director	HARMAN INTERNATIONAL, 400 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 1500, STAMFORD CT 06901
Eugene G Banucci	director
Sheila Marie Dipalma	officer: SVP, Employee Services	1 VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760
Robert Willett	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O COGNEX CORPORATION, ONE VISION DRIVE, NATICK MA 01760-2059