GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA (OTCPK:CGUSY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Casino Guichard-Perrachon (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is Casino Guichard-Perrachon Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Casino Guichard-Perrachon Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Casino Guichard-Perrachon's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA (OTCPK:CGUSY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XPAR:RAL KR TSE:3382 TSX:L XAMS:AD ASX:WOW LSE:TSCO TSX:WN ASX:COL BKK:CPALL ACI TSX:MRU XPAR:CA WAR:DNP TPE:2912 LSE:SBRY CHDRAUIB ISX:AMRT OHEL:KESKOA IST:BIMAS
Traded in Other Exchanges
CGUIF:USA 0HB1:UK CO:France CAJ:Germany
Address
No. 1, Cours Antoine Guichard, Saint-Etienne, FRA, 42008
Website
https://www.groupe-casino.fr
Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA is a multiformat retailer with a focused exposure on France and Latin America. The Group's reportable segments are as follows: 1) France Retail segment comprising retail operating segments (mainly the Casino, Monoprix and Franprix sub-group banners); 2) GPA segment comprising the retail operations of GPA's food banners in Brazil; 3) Assaí segment comprising the retail operations of the Assaí food chain in Brazil; 4) Exito segment comprising the food retail operations of the Exito, Disco - Devoto and Libertad sub-group banners in Colombia, Uruguay and Argentina, respectively; 5) E-commerce segment comprising Cdiscount and the Cnova NV holding company.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Former 'Warren Buffett of Spain'-Led Bestinfond's Top 5 Q4 Stock Buys

By Holly LaFon Holly LaFon • 03-10-2016