Comstock Holding Co (Comstock Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Comstock Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Comstock Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Comstock Holding Co (Comstock Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Comstock Holding Co Inc (NAS:CHCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CHO1:Germany

Address

1900 Reston Metro Plaza, 10th Floor, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

https://www.comstockcompanies.com

Comstock Holding Co Inc is a developer and manager of mixed-use and transit-oriented properties with operations that are majorly focused on the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. It provides a broad range of asset management services to customers and partners, composed primarily of private and institutional owners, investors in commercial, residential, and mixed-use real estate, and various governmental bodies seeking to leverage the potential of public-private partnerships.

Executives

David Peter Paul	director	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Thomas Joseph Holly	director	1900 RESTON METRO PLAZA, 10TH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Dwight C Schar	10 percent owner	C/O NVR INC, 7601 LEWINSVILLE ROAD SUITE 300, MCLEEAN VA 22102
Ivy Zelman	director	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
James A Maccutcheon	director	10770 COLUMBIA PIKE, SILVER SPRING MD 20901
Joseph M Squeri	director	11465 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, 4TH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
David M Guernsey	director	12414 CLIFTON HUNT DRIVE, CLIFTON VA 20124
Timothy Steffan	officer: EVP, Asset Management	1886 METRO CENTER DR, 4TH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
54, L.c. Fr	10 percent owner	1886 METRO CENTER DRIVE, FOURTH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Comstock Development Services, L.c.	10 percent owner	1886 METRO CENTER DRIVE, FOURTH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Stonehenge Funding, L.c.	10 percent owner	1886 METRO CENTER DRIVE, FOURTH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Christopher Michael Guthrie	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1886 METRO CENTER DRIVE, 4TH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Christopher Clemente	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	11465 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, SUITE 510, RESTON VA 20910
Robert P Pincus	director
Jubal R Thompson	other: Secretary	11465 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, SUITE 400, RESTON VA 20190