Chatham Lodging Trust (Chatham Lodging Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Chatham Lodging Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Chatham Lodging Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Chatham Lodging Trust (Chatham Lodging Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Chatham Lodging Trust (NYSE:CLDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

222 Lakeview Avenue, Suite 200, West Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33401

Website

https://www.chathamlodgingtrust.com

Chatham Lodging Trust is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust that invests in upscale extended-stay hotels. The firm operates across various states in the U.S., including California, New York, Texas, Florida, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania among others. Substantially all of the company's assets are held and operated by its Operating Partnership, Chatham Lodging, LP. Chatham Lodging LP and its subsidiaries lease the overall company's hotels. The firm operates through a single segment because of the similar economic characteristics of its hotels. Chatham's revenue streams include Room, Food and beverage, and Other. Room comprises the majority of total revenue. Chatham's hotels operate under major brands, including Hilton, Marriott, and Hyatt.

Executives

Ethel Issacs Williams	director	222 LAKEVIEW AVE, SUITE 200, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Dennis M Craven	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	850 RIDGE LAKE BLVD, STE 300, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Jeffrey H Fisher	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	50 COCOANUT ROW, SUITE 200, PALM BEACH FL 33480
David Grissen	director	10400 FERNWOOD ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817
Robert D Perlmutter	director	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
C Gerald Goldsmith	director	50 COCOANUT ROW, SUITE 200, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Mary Elizabeth Higgins	director	3525 E. POST ROAD #120, LAS VEGAS NV 89120
Peter Willis	officer: EVP & Chief Investment Officer	50 COCOANUT ROW, SUITE 200, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Brewer Edwin B Jr	director	C/O EDUCATION REALTY TRUST, INC., 999 SOUTH SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 600, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Jeremy Bruce Wegner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8000 PORTOFINO CIRCLE, APARTMENT 101, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33418
Chatham Lodging Trust	officer: Chief Financial Officer	222 LAKEVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 200, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Joel F Zemans	director	50 COCOANUT ROW, SUITE 200, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Miles L Berger	director
Julio E Morales	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1000, BETHESDA MD 20814
Thomas J Crocker	director	433 PLAZA REAL STE 335, BOCA RATON FL 33432