What is Cleveland-Cliffs Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cleveland-Cliffs Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cleveland-Cliffs (Cleveland-Cliffs) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 Public Square, Suite 3300, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44114-2315
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is a flat-rolled steel producer and manufacturer of iron ore pellets in North America. It has one reportable segment -Steelmaking. It is vertically integrated from mined raw materials, direct reduced iron, and ferrous scrap to primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling and tubing. It serves a diverse range of other markets due to its comprehensive offering of flat-rolled steel products. Geographically, it operates in the United States, Canada and other countries. The majority of revenue is from the United States. It is a supplier of steel to the automotive industry in North America.
Executives
| Michael Ralph S Iii |
director |
|
| Goncalves Celso L Jr |
officer: EVP, CFO |
200 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 3300, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
| Arlene M Yocum |
director |
99 PINE STREET, ALBANY NY 12207 |
| Lourenco Goncalves |
director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO |
|
| Keith Koci |
officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer |
ONE RIVERWAY, SUITE 1100, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Douglas C Taylor |
director |
200 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 3300, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
| Susan Miranda Green |
director |
11211 LANDY COURT, KENSINGTON MD 20895 |
| Janet L Miller |
director |
200 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 3300, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
| Fisher Robert P Jr |
director |
200 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 3300, CLEVELAND OH 44067 |
| John T Baldwin |
director |
200 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 3300, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
| Arcelormittal North America Holdings Llc |
other: Former 10% Owner |
1 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, 13TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603 |
| Rcelormittal |
other: Former 10% Owner |
24-26, BOULEVARD D?AVRANCHES, L-1160 LUXEMBOURG, GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG N4 00000 |
| Kimberly A Floriani |
officer: VP, Corp Controller & CAO |
200 PUBLIC SQUARE, SUITE 3300, CLEVELAND OH 44114 |
| M Ann Harlan |
director |
|
| William K Gerber |
director |
999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
CLF has been successfully added to your