What is ClearSign Technologies Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
ClearSign Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
ClearSign Technologies (ClearSign Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8023 East 63rd Place, Suite 101, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74133
ClearSign Technologies Corp is engaged in providing solutions to some of the pressing productivity, energy efficiency, and pollution problems affecting the energy, oil, and gas production, boiler, and processing industries. It believes that its patented ClearSign Core technology can enhance the performance of combustion systems in a broad range of markets, including the energy (upstream oil production and downstream refining), institutional, commercial, and industrial boiler, chemical, and petrochemical industries. The company offers products that include process burners, boiler burners, flares, and ClearSign Eye.
Executives
| Lacy Catharine De |
director |
6 VILLAGE NORTH DR, #107, HILTON HEAD SC 29926 |
| Gary J. Dielsi |
director |
18 PIERREPONT DRIVE, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877 |
| Hoffman Robert Thurston Sr |
director, 10 percent owner |
119 WARREN AVENUE, SPRING LAKE NJ 07762 |
| Bruce Alan Pate |
director |
23235 WALLING RD., GEYSERVILLE CA 95441 |
| Brent Hinds |
officer: VP and Controller |
12870 INTERURBAN AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98168 |
| Judith S Schrecker |
director |
12870 INTERURBAN AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98168 |
| Susanne Meline |
director |
P.O. BOX 515381, #86506, LOS ANGELES CA 90051 |
| Deller Colin James |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O CLEARSIGN COMBUSTION CORP., 12870 INTERURBAN AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98168 |
| Donald W Kendrick |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
12870 INTERURBAN AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98168 |
| Brian Grant Fike |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
12755 SE 73RD PLACE, NEWCASTLE WA 98056-1315 |
| Stephen Michael Sock |
officer: SVP, Business Development |
4025 RAVENSWAY CT, PEARLAND TX 77584 |
| Lon E Bell |
director |
C/O AMERIGON INC, 5462 IRWINDALE AVENUE, IRWINDALE CA 91706 |
| James M Simmons |
director |
|
| Clirspv Llc |
10 percent owner |
119 WARREN AVE, 3RD FLOOR, SPRING LAKE NJ 07762-1217 |
| Princeton Opportunity Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
119 WARREN AVE, 3RD FLOOR, SPRING LAKE NJ 07762 |
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