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Clean Energy Fuels (Clean Energy Fuels) Predictability Rank


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What is Clean Energy Fuels Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Clean Energy Fuels Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Clean Energy Fuels Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Clean Energy Fuels (Clean Energy Fuels) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Clean Energy Fuels Corp (NAS:CLNE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SGU FGPR CAPL AMTX VTNR BDCO AE WKC DKL DK NSE:RELIANCE MPC PSX VLO NSE:IOC OHEL:NESTE TPE:6505 XKAZ:KMGZ BOM:500547 TSE:5020
Traded in Other Exchanges
WIQ:Germany
Address
4675 MacArthur Court, Suite 800, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Website
https://www.cleanenergyfuels.com
Clean Energy Fuels Corp is a natural gas marketer and retailer operating in the United States and Canada. The company supplies compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and renewable natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicles. The majority of revenue is generated within the U.S. and mostly consists of compressed natural gas. The company operates by purchasing natural gas from local utilities; compressing, cooling, or liquefying it at company-owned plants; and selling natural gas products through company-owned or customer-owned fueling stations. The company also builds, operates, and maintains natural gas fueling stations for customers. The company's target markets include heavy-duty trucking, airports, public transit, institutional energy users, and government fleets.
Executives
Mathieu Soulas director 4675 MACARTHUR CT, STE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Parker Anders Weil director 262 MCKINLEY PLACE, RIDGEWOOD NJ 07450
Lizabeth A Ardisana director 328 S. SAGINAW ST., FLINT MI 48430
Mitchell W Pratt officer: Sr. VP, Eng., Opp & Public Aff C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP, 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Barclay Corbus officer: Sr. VP, Strategic Development C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP, 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Andrew J Littlefair director, officer: President and CEO C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP, 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Lorraine Paskett director C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP., 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Karine Boissy-rousseau director C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP., 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Laurent Rene Wolffsheim director C/O SUNPOWER CORPORATION, 77 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Robert M. Vreeland officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP, 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Total Marketing Services S.a. 10 percent owner 24 COURS MICHELET DEFENSE 10, PUTEAUX I0 92800
Thomas Maurisse director C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP., 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Kenneth M Socha director C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP., 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Miller James C Iii director C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP., 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Vincent C Taormina director C/O CLEAN ENERGY FUELS CORP, 4675 MACARTHUR COURT, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660