Clearwater Paper (Clearwater Paper) Predictability Rank

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What is Clearwater Paper Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Clearwater Paper Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Clearwater Paper (Clearwater Paper) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Clearwater Paper Corp (NYSE:CLW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5WC:Germany

Address

601 West Riverside, Suite 1100, Spokane, WA, USA, 99201

Website

https://www.clearwaterpaper.com

Clearwater Paper Corp is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of private label tissue, paperboard, and pulp-based products. The company has two reportable segments namely the consumer products segment which manufactures and sells a complete line of at-home tissue products as well as AFH products. The pulp and paperboard segment manufactures and markets bleached paperboard for the high-end segment of the packaging industry as well as offers services that include custom sheeting, slitting and cutting of paperboard. It generates maximum revenue from Pulp and Paperboard segment. Geographically, it derives maximum revenue from the United States.

Executives

Sherri Baker	officer: SVP, CFO	1070 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, NORTH VENICE FL 34275
Michael S Gadd	officer: Vice President	601 W FIRST AVE., SUITE 1600, SPOKANE WA 99201
Rebecca Anne Barckley	officer: VP, Controller	414 UNION STREET, SUITE 2000, NASHVILLE TN 37219
Michael John Murphy	officer: Sr. VP, Finance and CFO	KAPSTONE PAPER AND PACKAGING CORPORATION, 1101 SKOKIE BLVD., STE. 300, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Kari G. Moyes	officer: SVP, HR	601 WEST RIVERSIDE AVENUE, SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Steve M Bowden	officer: Senior Vice President	601 WEST RIVERSIDE AVE., SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Jeanne M Hillman	director	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Michael J Urlick	officer: Sr. VP, GM, CPD	601 W. RIVERSIDE AVE., SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Vickers Tucker Christine M.	director	601 W RIVERSIDE AVE. SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Ann C Nelson	director	601 W. RIVERSIDE AVE., SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Joanne P. Shufelt	officer: SVP, GM, CPD	601 W. RIVERSIDE AVE., SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201
Linda K Massman	officer: Vice President	601 W. FIRST AVE, SUITE 1600, SPOKANE WA 99201
John J Corkrean	director	370 WABASHA STREET NORTH, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Robert G. Hrivnak	officer: Sr. VP, Finance and CFO	C/O ORION ENGINEERED CARBONS S.A., 4501 MAGNOLIA COVE DRIVE, SUITE 106, HOUSTON TX 77345
Arsen S. Kitch	officer: Vice President	601 WEST RIVERSIDE AVE., SUITE 1100, SPOKANE WA 99201