What is Consolidated Communications Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Consolidated Communications Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Consolidated Communications Holdings (Consolidated Communications Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2116 South 17th Street, Mattoon, IL, USA, 61938-5973
Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc provides communication services for business and residential customers across various states in the U.S. Its business product suite includes data and Internet solutions, voice, data center services, security services, managed and IT services, and an expanded suite of cloud services. It provides wholesale solutions to wireless and wireline carriers and other service providers including data, voice, network connections, and custom fiber builds and last-mile connections. It offers residential high-speed Internet, video, phone, and home security services as well as multi-service residential and small business bundles.
Executives
| Fred Graffam |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1990 WITTINGTON PLACE, FARMERS BRANCH TX 75234 |
| Solis Michel Marissa |
director |
7221 LANGMUIR DRIVE, MCKINNEY TX 75071 |
| Steven L Childers |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
CONSOLIDATED COMMUNICATIONS, 121 SOUTH 17TH STREET, MATTOON IL 61938-3987 |
| Andrew Frey |
director |
10802 EXECUTIVE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, LITTLE ROCK AR 72211 |
| Searchlight Iii Cvl Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P., 745 FIFTH AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10151 |
| Searchlight Iii Cvl, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS, L.P., 745 FIFTH AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10151 |
| Robert J Currey |
director |
|
| Maribeth S Rahe |
director |
255 E FIFTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
| David G Fuller |
director |
240 WATSON AVE, OAKVILLE A6 L6J 3V1 |
| Udell C Robert Jr |
director, officer: President and CEO |
CONSOLIDATED COMMUNICATIONS, 121 SOUTH 17TH STREET, MATTOON IL 61938-3987 |
| Moore Roger H/ca |
director |
12061 BLUEMONT WAY, ATTN: GENERAL COUNSEL, RESTON VA 20190 |
| Thomas A Gerke |
director |
GERKE THOMAS A, OVERLAND PARK KS 66251 |
| Timothy D Taron |
director |
P.O. BOX 969, ROSEVILLE CA 95661 |
| Dale E Parker |
director |
93 HOYLAKE, ROCKY MOUNT NC 27804 |
| Richard Anthony Lumpkin |
director |
121 SOUTH 17TH STREET, MATTOON IL 61938 |
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