Central Pacific Financial (Central Pacific Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Central Pacific Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Central Pacific Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Central Pacific Financial (Central Pacific Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Central Pacific Financial Corp (NYSE:CPF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

220 South King Street, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96813

Website

https://www.cpb.bank

Central Pacific Financial Corp operates in the financial services sector in the United States. It is a full-service commercial bank offering a broad range of banking products and services, including accepting time and demand deposits and originating loans. Bank's deposits are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to applicable limits. The bank is not a member of the Federal Reserve System. The company's loans include commercial loans, construction loans, commercial and residential mortgage loans and consumer loans. The company derives income from interest and fees on loans, interest on investment securities and fees received in connection with deposits and other services.

Executives

Agnes Catherine Ngo	officer: EVP and CAO	220 S KING STREET, HONOLULU HI 96817
Camp Friedman Christine H H	director	220 SOUTH KING STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Arnold D Martines	officer: Senior Vice President	220 SOUTH KING ST, HONOLULU HI 96813
Paul K Yonamine	director	C/O HOKU SCIENTIFIC, INC., 2153 NORTH KING STREET, SUITE 300, HONOLULU HI 96819
Earl E Fry	director	C/O INFORMATICA CORPORATION, 2100 SEAPORT BLVD., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Kisan Jo	officer: EVP	220 SOUTH KING ST, 870, HONOLULU HI 96813
Diane Murakami	officer: EVP	220 SOUTH KING ST, 870, HONOLULU HI 96813
Jason Fujimoto	director	220 SOUTH KING ST, 870, HONOLULU HI 96813
Paul Kosasa	director	ABC STORE, 766 POHNKAINA ST, HONOLULU HI 96813
Jonathan B Kindred	director	220 SOUTH KING STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Saedene K Ota	director	220 SOUTH KING ST, #870, HONOLULU HI 96813
Wayne K Kamitaki	director	220 SOUTH KING ST, #870, HONOLULU HI 96813
Crystal Rose	director	47-460 WAIHEE PLACE, KANEOHE HI 96744
Kevin Vincent Dahlstrom	officer: EVP, CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER	220 S KING STREET, #870, HONOLULU HI 96813
John C Dean	other: Acting Exec Chairman of Board	220 S. KING STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813