Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (Catalyst Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Catalyst Pharmaceuticals (Catalyst Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:CPRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CN2:Germany

Address

355 Alhambra Circle, Suite 801, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134

Website

https://www.catalystpharma.com

Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It focuses on developing and commercializing innovative therapies for people with rare, debilitating, chronic neuromuscular and neurological diseases. It offers Firdapse, a proprietary form of amifampridine phosphate for the treatment of patients with Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome.

Executives

Molly Harper	director	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 801, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
David S Tierney	director	C/O ABLE LABORATORIES, INC., 6 HOLLYWOOD COURT, CN 1013, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Alicia Grande	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	220 MIRACLE MILE, SUITE 234, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Gary Ingenito	officer: Chief Medical Officer	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 1500, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Steve Miller	officer: VP Development & Management	220 MIRACLE MILE, SUITE 234, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Tamar Thompson	director	C/O AVIDITY BIOSCIENCES, INC., 10975 N. TORREY PINES RD., SUITE 150, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Patrick J Mcenany	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and Chief Executive	C/O THERMOGENESIS CORP, 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Carmen Jeffrey Del	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 801, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Brian Elsbernd	officer: Chief Compliance/Legal Officer	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Philip H Coelho	director	C/O THERMOGENESIS CORP, 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Charles B O'keeffe	director	220 MIRACLE MILE, SUITE 234, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Donald A Denkhaus	director	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 1500, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Preethi Sundaram	officer: Chief Product Devel. Officer	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 801, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Daniel Brennan	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O INSYS THERAPEUTICS, INC, 1333 SOUTH SPECTRUM BLVD, SUITE 100, CHANDLER AZ 85286
M Douglas Winship	officer: V.P. of Regulatory Operations	220 MIRACLE MILE, SUITE 234, CORAL GABLES FL 33134