CorVel (CorVel) Predictability Rank

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What is CorVel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CorVel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CorVel (CorVel) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » CorVel Corp (NAS:CRVL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5128 Apache Plume Road, Suite 400, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76109

Website

https://www.corvel.com

CorVel Corp applies technology including artificial intelligence, machine learning and natural language processing to enhance the managing of episodes of care and the related health care costs. It partners with employers, third-party administrators, insurance companies and government agencies in managing worker's compensation and health, auto and liability services. The company's solutions combine integrated technologies with a human touch. CorVel's customized services, delivered locally, are backed by a national team to support clients as well as their customers and patients.

Executives

Brandon O'brien	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
V Gordon Clemons	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	2010 MAIN STREET, STE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Steven J Hamerslag	director	PO BOX 7227, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Maxim Shishin	officer: Chief Information Officer	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Michael G Combs	officer: Chief Information Officer	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Jean Macino	director	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
R Judd Jessup	director	30962 VIA SERENIDAD, COTO DE CAZA CA 92679
Mark E. Bertels	officer: EVP - Risk Management Services	1920 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, IRVINE CA 92614
Corstar Holdings Inc	10 percent owner	2010 MAIN STREET STE 800, IRVINE CA 92614
Jennifer Yoss	officer: Vice President of Accounting	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Gregory A. Dorn	officer: Division President	1920 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, IRVINE CA 92614
Jeffrey J Michael	director	2010 MAIN STREET STE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Alan Hoops	director	2010 MAIN ST STE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Diane Blaha	officer: Sr. VP of Sales & Account Mgmt	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614
Michael Saverien	officer: Exec. VP, Risk Mgmt. Services	2010 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, IRVINE CA 92614