Community Trust Bancorp (Community Trust Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Community Trust Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Community Trust Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Community Trust Bancorp (Community Trust Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Community Trust Bancorp Inc (NAS:CTBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

346 North Mayo Trail, P.O. Box 2947, Pikeville, KY, USA, 41502

Website

https://www.ctbi.com

Community Trust Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. The Bank owns all the capital stock of one commercial bank and one trust company, serving small and mid-sized communities in eastern, north-eastern, central, and southcentral Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and north-eastern Tennessee. Through its subsidiaries, the Bank is engaged in commercial and personal banking and trust and wealth management activities, which include accepting time and demand deposits; making secured and unsecured loans to corporations, individuals, and others; providing cash management services to corporate and individual customers; issuing letters of credit; renting safe deposit boxes; and providing funds transfer services.

Executives

James B Draughn	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP INC, PO BOX 2947, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2947
Franky Minnifield	other: Director of Lead Bank	4809 CHAFFEY LANE, LEXINGTON KY 415020351
Ricky D Sparkman	officer: Executive Vice President	1218 E BROADWAY, CAMPBELLSVILLE KY 42718
Kevin J Stumbo	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O COMMUNITY TRUST BANK, INC., PO BOX 2947, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2947
David Andrew Jones	officer: Executive Vice President	1544 WINCHESTER AVENUE, ASHLAND KY 41101
Farris Franklin H Jr	director	2008 HIGH RIDGE ROAD, LOUISVILLE KY 40207
Mark A Gooch	officer: EVP & Treasurer, other: Pres/CEO Community Trust Bank	PO BOX 2947, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2947
Chad C Street	other: Director of Lead Bank	684 CEDAR CREEK ROAD, PIKEVILLE KY 41501-1432
M Lynn Parrish	director	PO BOX 2725, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2725
Charles J Baird	director	P O BOX 351, PIKEVILLE KY 415020351
Billie J. Dollins	officer: Executive Officer	3205 PEPPERHILL ROAD, LEXINGTON KY 40502
James J Gartner	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 2947, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2947
Andy D Waters	officer: Executive Vice President	100 EAST VINE STREET, LEXINGTON KY 40507-1406
David I Tackett	officer: Executive Vice President	COMMUNITY TRUST BANK, INC., PO BOX 2974, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2974
Richard W Newsom	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 2947, PIKEVILLE KY 41502-2947