Charleslvard (Charleslvard) Predictability Rank

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What is Charleslvard Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Charleslvard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Charleslvard (Charleslvard) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Charles & Colvard Ltd (NAS:CTHR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CDR:Germany

Address

170 Southport Drive, Morrisville, NC, USA, 27560

Website

https://www.charlesandcolvard.com

Charles & Colvard Ltd manufactures, markets, and distributes finished jewellery which also includes moissanite gemstone in the jewellery market. The company sells jewels through two operating segments namely Online Channels segment and Traditional segment. It generates maximum revenue from the Online Channels segment. Online Channels segment which consists of e-commerce outlets including charlesandcolvard.com, moissaniteoutlet.com, third-party online marketplaces, drop-ship retail, and other pure-play, exclusively e-commerce outlets.

Executives

Don O'connell	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O CHARLES & COLVARD, LTD., 170 SOUTHPORT DRIVE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Ollin B Sykes	director	C/O GATEWAY FINANCIAL HODINGS, P O BOX 1908, ELIZABETH CITY NC 27906
Clint J. Pete	officer: CFO	1805 DUNES COURT, RALEIGH NC 27615
Neal I Goldman	director	170 SOUTHPORT DRIVE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Anne M Butler	director	59 ARMSTRONG ROAD, P.O. BOX 976, PLYMOUTH MA 02360
Benedetta I Casamento	director	200 CAMPUS DRIVE, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Suzanne Miglucci	director, officer: President and CEO	10305 WHITESTONE ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27615
Jaqui Lividini	director	27 EAST 95TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10128
George R. Cattermole	director	300 PERIMETER PARK DRIVE, STE A, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Randy N Mccullough	officer: President & CEO	C/O CHARLES & COLVARD, LTD., 300 PERIMETER PARK DRIVE, SUITE A, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Kyle Macemore	officer: CFO	C/O CHARLES & COLVARD, LTD., 300 PERIMETER PARK DRIVE, SUITE A, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Charles D Lein	director	C/O CHARLES & COLVARD LTD., 300 PERIMETER PARK DR., STE A, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Timothy L Krist	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CHARLES & COLVARD LTD., 300 PERIMETER PARK DR., STE A, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
David B Barr	director	1319 GARRICK WAY, MARIETTA 2Q 30068
Steve Larkin	director	901 WEST WALNUT HILL LANE, IRVING TX 75038