Calavo Growers (Calavo Growers) Predictability Rank

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What is Calavo Growers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Calavo Growers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Calavo Growers (Calavo Growers) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Calavo Growers Inc (NAS:CVGW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1141-A Cummings Road, Santa Paula, CA, USA, 93060

Website

http://www.calavo.com

Calavo Growers Inc is in the avocado industry and an expanding provider of value-added fresh food. It sells avocados to a group of supermarket chains, wholesalers, food service and other distributors, under brand labels, as well as private labels. The company procures avocados from California, Mexico and other growing regions around the world. Calavo is segmented into three segments namely, Fresh products; Calavo Foods; and RFG. The company derives its revenue from its Fresh products segment.

Executives

Michael A Browne	officer: VP-Fresh Operations	C/O MISSION PRODUCE, INC., 2500 E. VINEYARD AVENUE, SUITE 300, OXNARD CA 93036
Paul Alan Harrison	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CALAVO GROWERS, INC., 1141-A CUMMINGS RD., SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Steve Hollister	director	751 BEAR CANYON LANE, ARROYO GRANDE CA 93420
Lecil E Cole	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of Board, CEO & Pres
James D Helin	director	1141A CUMMINGS RD, SANTA PAULA CA 93036
Helen Kurtz	officer: SVP and GM - Prepared	C/O CALAVO GROWERS, INC., 1141-A CUMMINGS RD., SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Danny Dumas	officer: SVP & GM Grown	C/O CALAVO GROWERS, INC., 1141-A CUMMINGS RD., SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Shawn Munsell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CALAVO GROWERS, INC., 1141-A CUMMINGS RD., SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Graciela Montgomery	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O CALAVO GROWERS, INC., 1141-A CUMMINGS RD, SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Brian W Kocher	officer: Chief Executive Officer	1141-A CUMMINGS ROAD, SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Adriana Mendizabal	director	C/O CALAVO GROWERS, INC., 1141-A CUMMINGS RD., SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Mariela Irene Matute	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1141-A CUMMINGS RD., SANTA PAULA CA 93060
Donald M Sanders	director	2530 RED HILL AVE, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Michael Anthony Digregorio	director	C/O IRONCLAD PERFORMANCE WEAR CORP., 2201 PARK PLACE, SUITE 101, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Robert J Wedin	officer: VP Sales & Fresh Marketing	1141A CUMMINGS ROAD, SANTA PAULA CA 93060