What is Codorus Valley Bancorp Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Codorus Valley Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Codorus Valley Bancorp (Codorus Valley Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
105 Leader Heights Road, P.O. Box 2887, Codorus Valley Corporate Center, York, PA, USA, 17403
Codorus Valley Bancorp Inc is a United States-based bank holding company. Through its subsidiary, it offers a full range of consumer, business, wealth management, and mortgage services at financial centers located in communities throughout South Central Pennsylvania and Central Maryland. It operates in a single segment, which is community banking. The loan portfolio is segmented is two classes: commercial, which includes builder & developer, commercial real estate investor, residential real estate investor, hotel/motel, wholesale & retail, agriculture, manufacturing, and all others; and consumer, which consists of residential mortgage, home equity and all other. Substantially, all the revenue for the group is derived in the form of an interest income.
Executives
| Stephen M Altland |
officer: SVP of PeoplesBank |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Scott V Fainor |
director |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS RD, YORK PA 17403 |
| John W Giambalvo |
other: Director of PeoplesBank |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| John E Kiernan |
director |
110 CROTON AVENUE, MOUNT KISCO NY 10549 |
| Craig L Kauffman |
officer: EVP & COO |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Keith Michael Cenekofsky |
director |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Brian D Brunner |
other: Director of PeoplesBank |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Sarah M Brown |
director |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Kent K. Matsumoto |
director |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS RD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Diane E Hill |
officer: Vice President |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Matthew A Clemens |
officer: SVP of subsidiary, PeoplesBank |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| John Rodney Messick |
director |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Larry D Pickett |
officer: Treasurer |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Daniel R Stolzer |
officer: General Counsel |
C/O CODORUS VALLEY BANCORP INC, 105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
| Kristen Marie Heisey |
other: SVP of PeoplesBank |
105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403 |
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