Diamond Hill Investment Group (Diamond Hill Investment Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is Diamond Hill Investment Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Diamond Hill Investment Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Diamond Hill Investment Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Diamond Hill Investment Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Diamond Hill Investment Group (Diamond Hill Investment Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc (NAS:DHIL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BVE:Germany

Address

325 John H. McConnell Boulevard, Suite 200, Columbus, OH, USA, 43215

Website

https://www.diamond-hill.com

Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc sponsors, markets, and provides investment advisory and related services to various U.S. and foreign clients including mutual funds, separate accounts, and private investment funds. The company's objective is to fulfill a fiduciary duty to clients and secondary objectives to achieve an adequate long-term return for shareholders. The company generates its revenue from Investment advisory and Mutual fund administration fees.

Executives

Laird James F Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	375 N FRONT STREET, SUITE 300, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Heather E Brilliant	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	325 JOHN H MCCONNELL BLVD, SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Paula R Meyer	director	ADVISORY HEDGED OPPORTUNITY FUND, 50590 AXP FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
Jo Ann Quinif	officer: President of DHCM	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Mark Zinkula	director	325 JOHN H MCCONNELL BLVD, SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Thomas Edward Line	officer: Chief Financial Officer	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
L'quentus Thomas	director	325 JOHN H MCCONNELL BLVD, SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Richard Scott Cooley	director	325 JOHN H MCCONNELL BLVD, SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Randolph J. Fortener	director	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., STE. 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
St. Pierre Nicole Renee	director	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Dillon Roderick H Jr	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	180 BEACH DRIVE NE 2001, SAINT PETERSBURG FL 33701
Lisa M Wesolek	officer: COO of DHCM	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., STE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Bradley C Shoup	director	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., SUITE 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Frances A Skinner	director	138 PUTNAM STREET, MARIETTA OH 45750
Christopher M Bingaman	officer: President of DHCM	325 JOHN H. MCCONNELL BLVD., STE. 200, COLUMBUS OH 43215