Dorman Products (Dorman Products) Predictability Rank

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What is Dorman Products Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dorman Products Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dorman Products (Dorman Products) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Dorman Products Inc (NAS:DORM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3400 East Walnut Street, Colmar, PA, USA, 18915

Website

https://www.dormanproducts.com

Dorman Products Inc is a supplier of original equipment parts for automobiles. The company produces automotive and heavy-duty replacement parts, automotive hardware, brake parts, and fasteners for the automotive and heavy-duty aftermarket. The products are sold under the Dorman brand and its sub-brands OE Solutions, Help!, Conduct-Tite, and HD Solutions through aftermarket retailers, regional and local warehouse distributors, specialty markets, and salvage yards. It operates as a single reportable operating segment, namely, the sale of replacement and upgrades parts in the motor vehicle aftermarket industry, serving passenger cars, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks as well as specialty vehicles. The company operates primarily in the United States.

Executives

G. Michael Stakias	director	C/O DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC., 3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Lindsay Hunt	officer: Pres and CEO, Specialty Vehicl	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Brian Borradaile	officer: SVP, Strategy & Corp Dev	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Eric Luftig	officer: Senior Vice President, Product	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Jeffery Darby	officer: SVP, Sales	C/O DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC., 3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Steven L Berman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, COO
James Darrell Thomas	director	3700 JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
John J Gavin	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Donna M. Long	officer: SVP, CIO	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
John Mcknight	officer: SVP, Operations	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 19103
Paul E Anderson	officer: President, Heavy Duty	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Scott Leff	officer: SVP, CHRO	3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Michael Kealey	officer: SVP, Product	C/O DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC., 3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Lisa M Bachmann	director	300 PHILLIPI ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43228
Joseph P. Braun	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC., 3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915