Daseke (Daseke) Predictability Rank

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What is Daseke Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Daseke Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Daseke Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Daseke (Daseke) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Daseke Inc (NAS:DSKE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1VG:Germany 1VG:Germany

Address

15455 Dallas Parkway, Suite 550, Addison, TX, USA, 75001

Website

https://investor.daseke.com

Daseke Inc provides transportation and logistics solutions focused exclusively on flatbed and specialized freight in North America. It has two reportable segments: Flatbed Solutions and Specialized Solutions. The Flatbed Solutions segment focuses on delivering transportation and logistics solutions that principally require the use of flatbed and retractable-sided transportation equipment; and the Specialized Solutions segment focuses on delivering transportation and logistics solutions that require the use of specialized trailering transportation equipment. Daseke derives most of its revenues from its Specialized Solutions segment.

Executives

Aaron Coley	officer: EVP and CFO	15455 DALLAS PKWY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Scott Hoppe	officer: EVP and COO	C/O DASEKE, 15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Rick Alan Williams	officer: EVP and COO	15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Melendy E Lovett	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Bruce Blaise	director	C/O DASEKE, 15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Williams Ena Koschel	director	15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Catharine D Ellingsen	director	18500 N. ALLIED WAY, PHOENIX AZ 85054
Charles F Serianni	director	110 S.E. 6TH STREET, 28TH FLOOR, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Jason R. Bates	officer: EVP and CFO	USA TRUCK, INC., 3200 INDUSTRIAL PARK ROAD, VAN BUREN AR 72956
Grant Edward Garbers	director	C/O DASEKE, 15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Soumit Roy	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.	DASEKE, 15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Jonathan Shepko	director	15455 DALLAS PKWY, STE. 440, ADDISON TX 75001
Kevin M. Charlton	director	14631 NORTH SCOTTSDALE RD, SUITE 200, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Brian Bonner	director	15455 DALLAS PKWY, STE. 440, ADDISON TX 75001
Kimberly Warmbier	director	3150 SABRE DRIVE, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092