DST Systems (DST Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is DST Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DST Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DST Systems (DST Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » DST Systems Inc (NYSE:DST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.dstsystems.com

DST Systems Inc is a provider of information processing and servicing solutions to the financial industry. Clients include asset-management firms, brokerages, retirement funds, and healthcare firms. The company operates three business segments: financial services, healthcare services, and customer communications. DST Systems' largest segment by revenue, financial services, provides transaction processing, account opening and maintenance, reconciliation of trades, positions and cash, corporate actions, regulatory reporting and compliance functions, and tax reporting services. The company generates most of its revenue in the United States of America.

Executives

Samuel G Liss	director	VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Gary D Forsee	director	C/O INGERSOLL-RAND COMPANY, 155 CHESTNUT RIDGE ROAD, MONTVALE NJ 07645
Joseph C Antonellis	director	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Charles E Haldeman	director	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, L.P., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Edmund J Burke	officer: President of Subsidiary	1290 BROADWAY, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80203
Lynn Dorsey Bleil	director	333 WEST 11TH STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Stephen C Hooley	director, officer: Chairman, CEO & President	2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
A Edward Allinson	director	STATE STREET BOSTON CORP 225 FRANKLIN STREET BOSTON MA 02110
John W Clark	director	949 SOUTH COAST DRIVE, SUITE 650, COSTA MESA CA 92626
George L Argyros	director	ARNEL & AFFILIATES, 949 SOUTH COAST DR SUITE 600, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Lawrence M Higby	director	C/O APRIA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC, 26220 ENTERPRISE COURT, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Thomas A Mcdonnell	director, officer: CEO & Director	C/O KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, 427 W 12TH STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
M Jeannine Strandjord	other: Retired Director as of 5/9/12
William C Nelson	director	6521 WE NONGA TERRACE, MISSION HILLS KY 66208
Thomas A Mccullough	director	C/O DST SYSTEMS, 333 WEST 11TH ST 5TH FL, KANSAS CITY MO 64105