Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Daystar Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Daystar Technologies (Daystar Technologies) Business Description
DayStar Technologies, Inc., a Delaware corporation, was incorporated in February 1997. It completed its initial public offering in February 2004. It is a development stage enterprise, which develops, manufactures and markets products for the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry. The Company has developed a proprietary thin film deposition technology for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. It utilizes a proprietary one-step sputter deposition process and has manufactured a commercial scale deposition tool to apply high-efficiency copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) material over large area glass substrates in a continuous fashion. The Company intends to integrate this tool with commercially available thin film manufacturing equipment, which will provide it with a critically differentiated manufacturing process to produce low-cost monolithically integrated, CIGS-on-glass modules that address the grid-tied, ground-based PV market. It has initiated construction of its initial module production line. To facilitate its entry into the addressable solar PV market, it has entered into a contract with Blitzstrom GmbH, one of thin film solar PV integrators, that commits Blitzstrom to purchase a minimum of 50% of its production through 2011, subject to these products meeting defined performance criteria. The solar electricity industry currently supplies modules used in solar PV systems primarily for grid-connected systems.
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