Dynavax Technologies (Dynavax Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Dynavax Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dynavax Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dynavax Technologies (Dynavax Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Dynavax Technologies Corp (NAS:DVAX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DYF1:Germany

Address

2100 Powell Street, Suite 900, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.dynavax.com

Dynavax Technologies Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. The company focuses on leveraging the power of the body's innate and adaptive immune responses through toll-like receptor stimulation. Its current product candidates are being investigated for use in multiple cancer indications as a vaccine for the prevention of HEPLISAV-B (Hepatitis B Vaccine (Recombinant), Adjuvanted), operates in the business segment of discovery, development, and commercialization of novel vaccines. Its Toll-like Receptor Immune Modulation Platform technology plays a vital role in innate immunity and subsequent adaptive immunity. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue from the sale of its CpG 1018 product and HEPLISAV-B.

Executives

Robert Janssen	officer: Chief Medical Officer and VP	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES, 2929 SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 100, BERKELEY CA 94710
David F Novack	officer: Senior Vice President	39 YORKSHIRE DR, OAKLAND CA 94618
Hack Andrew A. F.	director	300 THIRD STREET, FIRST FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Justin Burgess	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 2100 POWELL STREET, SUITE 1900, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Ryan Spencer	officer: Co-President and Senior VP	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 2929 SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 100, BERKELEY CA 94710-2753
Francis Cano	director	11 ACORN LANE, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Elaine D Sun	director	11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Scott Dunseth Myers	director	C/O CASCADIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3101 WESTERN AVE., SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98121
Kelly Macdonald	officer: SVP and CFO	100 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 2300, BOSTON MA 02110
Peter R. Paradiso	director	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 2100 POWELL STREET, SUITE 900, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Julia Marie Eastland	director	C/O CASCADIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3101 WESTERN AVE., SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98121
Brent Macgregor	director	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 2100 POWELL STREET, SUITE 900, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Peggy V Phillips	director	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 2929 SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 100, BERKELEY CA 94710
Robert Coffman	officer: Chief Science Officer and VP	C/O DYNAVAX TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 2929 SEVENTH ST STE 100, BERKELEY CA 94710
Michael S Ostrach	officer: VP, CBO, and General Counsel	1300 SEAPORT BOULEVARD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063