Devon Energy (Devon Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Devon Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Devon Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Devon Energy (Devon Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DVN:Mexico 1DY6:Italy DY6d:UK DY6:Germany DY6:Germany DY6:Germany D1VN34:Brazil DVN:Austria

Address

333 West Sheridan Avenue, Oklahoma, OK, USA, 73102-5015

Website

https://www.devonenergy.com

Devon Energy, based in Oklahoma City, is one of the largest independent exploration and production companies in North America. The firm's asset base is spread throughout onshore North America and includes exposure to the Delaware, STACK, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin, and Bakken plays. At year-end 2022, Devon's proved reserves totaled 1.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and net production that year was 611 thousand boe/d, of which oil and natural gas liquids made up 73% of production, with natural gas accounting for the remainder.

Executives

Dennis C Cameron	officer: EVP and General Counsel	DEVON ENERGY, 333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Clay M Gaspar	officer: EVP and COO	333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Richard E Muncrief	director, officer: President and CEO	333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
John E Bethancourt	director	6001 BOLLINGER CANYON ROAD, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Michael N Mears	director	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, MD 28-1, TULSA OK 74172
Gennifer F. Kelly	director	1702 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Valerie Williams	director	C/O OMNICOM GROUP INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ann G Fox	director	2001 KIRBY DRIVE, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77019
Kelt Kindick	director	DEVON ENERGY CORP, 333 W SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Jeffrey L Ritenour	officer: EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	333 W. SHERIDAN AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Jeremy D. Humphers	officer: SVP Chief Accounting Officer	333 WEST SHERIDAN AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102-5015
Tana K Cashion	officer: SVP Human Resources and Admin	333 W. SHERIDAN AVENUE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Felix Investments Holdings Ii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1530 16TH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
Encap Energy Capital Fund X, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	9651 KATY FREEWAY, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Karl F Kurz	director	DEVON ENERGY CORP., 333 W. SHERIDAN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102