The Dixie Group (The Dixie Group) Predictability Rank

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What is The Dixie Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Dixie Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Dixie Group (The Dixie Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » The Dixie Group Inc (NAS:DXYN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DX6:Germany

Address

475 Reed Road, Dalton, GA, USA, 30720

Website

https://www.thedixiegroup.com

The Dixie Group Inc is carpet and rug mills company. Its businesses consist principally of marketing, manufacturing and selling finished carpet, rugs, and luxury vinyl tile in the domestic floor covering market. The company has one reportable segment, Floor covering. The company sells floor covering products in both residential and commercial applications. Additionally, the company provides manufacturing support to its carpet businesses through its separate processing operations. Its business is primarily concentrated in areas of the soft floor covering market segment. The company provides its products under the brand of Fabrica, Masland Residential, Dixie Home, Atlas Carpet Mills, Masland Contract, and Hospitality.

Executives

Lowry F Kline	director	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
Allen L Danzey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722-2007
Frierson Daniel K Jr	officer: President, Masland Residential	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
Jon A Faulkner	officer: VP Planning & Development	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
Daniel K Frierson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
W Derek Davis	officer: VP - Human Resources	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
Murrey John W Iii	director	4100 COCA-COLA PLAZA, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Thomas Martin Nuckols	officer: Executive Vice President	475 REED ROAD, DALTON GA 30720
Blue William F Jr	director	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
David E Hobbs	officer: VP - Pres Masland Contract	716 BILL MYLES DRIVE, SARALAND AL 36571
Paul B Comiskey	officer: Vice Pres/President Dixie Home	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
D Eugene Lasater	officer: Controller	2208 S. HAMILTON STREET, DALTON GA 30721
Starr T Klein	officer: Secretary	PO BOX 25107, CHATTANOOGA TN 37422-5107
Michael L. Owens	director	PO BOX 2007, DALTON GA 30722
Vinson Lee Martin	officer: VP-President Masland Contract	716 BILL MYLES DRIVE, SARALAND AL 36571