Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT) Predictability Rank

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What is Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT (NYSE:EARN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

CHMI ACR LFT MITT LOAN AJX WMC AAIC SACH SEVN NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

73Z:Germany

Address

53 Forest Avenue, Old Greenwich, CT, USA, 06870

Website

http://www.earnreit.com

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT is principally engaged in the business of acquiring, investing in, and managing residential mortgage- and real estate-related assets through its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company's primary objective is to generate attractive current yields and risk-adjusted total returns for shareholders by investing in assets that compensate appropriately for the risks associated with them.

Executives

Mary E Mcbride	director	6199 E. PRINCETON CIRCLE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Chukudi Melvin Ike	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Ronald I Simon	director	485 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Laurence Penn	director, officer: CEO and President	52 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
John Herlihy	officer: Chief Operating Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Chris Smernoff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Mark Tecotzky	officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Michael W Vranos	director, officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer	52 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
David Miller	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Bto Earn Manager L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Earn Holdings L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Stephen A Schwarzman	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Btoa L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154