US Ecology (US Ecology) Predictability Rank

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What is US Ecology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

US Ecology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

US Ecology Predictability Rank Related Terms

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US Ecology (US Ecology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Waste Management » US Ecology Inc (NAS:ECOL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

HKSE:01330 MEG TSX:SES XPAR:DBG TSE:5857 SHSE:600874 TSE:9793 LSE:BIFF XTAE:VRDS SHSE:688087

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 S. Capitol Boulevard, Suite 1000, Boise, ID, USA, 83702

Website

http://www.usecology.com

US Ecology Inc operates as an environmental service provider to commercial and government entities. The company's operating segments include Waste Solutions, Field Services, and Energy Waste. Waste Solutions provides a broad range of specialty material management services including transportation, recycling, treatment and disposal of hazardous, non-hazardous and radioactive waste; Field Services, provides specialty field services and total waste management solutions to commercial and industrial facilities and to government entities, and Energy Waste provides energy-related services and waste disposal services predominately to upstream energy customers.

Executives

Simon G Bell	officer: EVP & COO	300 E. MALLARD SUITE 300 BOISE ID 83706
Mack L Hogans	director	WEYERHAEUSER CO, P O B 9777, FEDERAL WAY WA 98063
E Renae Conley	director	414 SILVER AVE SW MS 1275, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87102-3289
Burke Richard L. Jr.	director	90 FORT WADE ROAD, PONTE VEDRA FL 32081
Katina Dorton	director	US ECOLOGY, INC., 251 E. FRONT ST., SUITE 400, BOISE ID 83702
Stephen A Romano	director
Jeffrey R Feeler	director, officer: President & CEO	300 E. MALLARD DR. SUITE 300 BOISE ID 83706
Daniel Fox	director	300 E. MALLARD DR., SUITE 300 BOISE ID 83706
John T. Sahlberg	director	C/O BOISE CASCADE, L.L.C., 1111 WEST JEFFERSON STREET, SUITE 300, BOISE ID 83702-5389
Jfl-nrcg Holdings Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, 27TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Jfl Equity Investors Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	J.F. LEHMAN & COMPANY, INC. 110 EAST 59TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10022
Jfl-ses Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, 27TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Jfl-nrc Int. (ja) Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, 27TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Jfl-nrc Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, 27TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Jfl-nrc-ses Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, 27TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022