El Paso Electric Co (El Paso Electric Co) Predictability Rank

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What is El Paso Electric Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

El Paso Electric Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

El Paso Electric Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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El Paso Electric Co (El Paso Electric Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » El Paso Electric Co (NYSE:EE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PNM POR HE KEN IDA SPKE GNE SUME OGE PCG NEE DUK SO AEP XEL WEC ES HKSE:00002 ED XMAD:ELE

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 North Stanton, Stanton Tower, El Paso, TX, USA, 79901

Website

https://www.epelectric.com

El Paso Electric Co is a Texas-based public utility company engaged in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity in the Southwestern U.S. The company principally serves retail customers in the El Paso, Texas and Las Cruces, New Mexico markets through its portfolio of nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and wind power plants. The vast majority of the total power produced by El Paso Electric is derived from its nuclear and natural gas facilities. The company generates most of its revenue from the production and sale of energy. Distribution service fees also represent a significant income stream. El Paso Electric primarily serves residential and small industrial customers, but also participates in wholesale transactions with local military installations and universities.

Executives

James W Cicconi	director	208 S. AKARD ST., DALLAS TX 75202
Charles Yamarone	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Eric B Siegel	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Stephen Wertheimer	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Paul M Barbas	director	C/O DPL INC., 1065 WOODMAN DRIVE, DAYTON OH 45432
Catherine A Allen	director	5 SAN SEBASTIAN ROAD, SANTA FE NM 87505
William Stiller	officer: SVP & Chief HRO	1601 W. LBJ FREEWAY, DALLAS TX 75234
Woody L Hunt	director	4401 NORTH MESA, EL PASO TX 79902
Shockley Thomas V Iii	director	602 CIMARRON HILLS TRAIL WEST, GEORGETOWN TX 78628
Michael K Parks	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Steven P Busser	officer: VP-TREASURER	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Kenneth Heitz	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Edwards George W Jr	director	123 W MILLS, EL PASO TX 79901
Redd Ershel C Jr	officer: President and CEO	C/O EL PASO ELECTRIC COMPANY, 100 N. STANTON, EL PASO TX 79901
Terry D Bassham	officer: Exec VP & Chief Fin & Admin	COMMERCE BANK, PO BOX 419248, KANSAS CITY MO 64141-6248