Excelerate Energy (Excelerate Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Excelerate Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Excelerate Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Excelerate Energy (Excelerate Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Excelerate Energy Inc (NYSE:EE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

OSG GPP BROG NGL SMLP BPT MMLP CWPE DLNG TNP TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE KMI MPLX TSX:TRP CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2445 Technology Forest Boulevard, Level 6, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77381

Website

https://www.excelerateenergy.com

Excelerate Energy Inc is engaged in flexible LNG solutions, providing integrated services along the LNG value chain. The company offers a full range of flexible regasification services from FSRUs to infrastructure development, to LNG and natural gas supply.

Executives

David A. Liner	officer: See Remarks	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Deborah L Byers	director	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Daniel H Bustos	officer: See Remarks	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Michael Anthony Bent	officer: See Remarks	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Excelerate Energy Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	6733 S. YALE AVE., TULSA OK 74136
Excelerate Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	6733 S. YALE AVE., TULSA OK 74136
Hood Alisa Newman	officer: See Remarks	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Steven M Kobos	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Henry G Kleemeier	director	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Paul T Hanrahan	director	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Calvin A Bancroft	officer: See Remarks	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Dana A Armstrong	officer: See Remarks	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Robert Waldo	director	6733 S. YALE AVE., TULSA, OK 74136
Amy Thompson Broussard	officer: See Remarks	C/O APERGY CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Don P. Millican	director	6733 S. YALE AVE., TULSA OK 74136