Ellington Financial (Ellington Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Ellington Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ellington Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ellington Financial (Ellington Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Ellington Financial Inc (NYSE:EFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

RWT KREF MFA NYMT TWO ARR FBRT DX CIM PMT NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

EFCpA.PFD:USA 1EL:Germany 1EL:Germany

Address

53 Forest Avenue, Old Greenwich, CT, USA, 06870

Website

http://www.ellingtonfinancial.com

Ellington Financial Inc is a specialty finance company. Its primary investment objective is to generate attractive, risk-adjusted total returns for its shareholders by making investments. the Company has two reportable segments; The Investment Portfolio Segment is focused on investing in a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans, residential mortgage-backed securities, non-mortgage- and mortgage-related derivatives, debt and equity investments in loan origination companies, and other strategic investments, and The Longbridge Segment is focused on the origination and servicing of reverse mortgage loans. it acquires reverse mortgage loans both through its origination activities and through secondary market purchases.

Executives

Lisa Mumford	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6 BEACHWOOD COURT, DIX HILLS NY 11746
Stephen J Dannhauser	director	122 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Laurence Penn	director, officer: CEO and President	52 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Ronald I Simon	director	485 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michael W Vranos	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer	52 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Chris Smernoff	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
John Herlihy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Mark Tecotzky	officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Thomas F Robards	director	666 THIRD AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Daniel R. Margolis	officer: Secretary	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Edward Resendez	director	52 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Vc Investments Llc	10 percent owner	53 FOREST AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Emg Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	53 FOREST AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Fbr Capital Markets Pt Inc	10 percent owner	1001 NINETEENTH STREET NORTH, ARLINGTON VA 22302