eGain (EGAN) Predictability Rank

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What is eGain Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

eGain Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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eGain (EGAN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » eGain Corp (NAS:EGAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EGCA:Germany

Address

1252 Borregas Avenue, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94089

Website

https://www.egain.com

eGain Corp automates customer engagement with an innovative Software as a service (SaaS) platform, powered by deep digital, Artificial intelligence (AI), and knowledge capabilities. It operates in the United States, the United Kingdom, and India. The company derives most of its revenues from North America. It provides its products to industries such as financial services, telecommunications, retail, government, healthcare, and utilities.

Executives

Russell Christine	director	17165 PINE STREET, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Eric Smit	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Phiroz P Darukhanavala	director	345 E. MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Gunjan Sinha	director	455 W. MAUDE AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Promod Narang	officer: Senior Vice President
Brett A Shockley	director	7125 NORTHLAND TERRACE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55428
Ashutosh Roy	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Todd Woodstra	officer: Senior VP, Global Sales	C/O EGAIN CORPORATION, 1252 BORREGAS AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Joseph Glenn Brown	officer: Senior VP of Worldwide Sales	1252 BORREGAS AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Augustus Berkeley	officer: Senior Vice President	1252 BORREGAS AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Live Oak Trust	other: See Remarks	201 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Robert M Bass	other: See Remarks	201 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3100, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Anne T Bass	other: See Remarks	6221 WESTOVER DRIVE, FORTWORTH TX 76107
Charles W Jepson	officer: Sr. VP of Business Development
Group Iii 31 Llc	other: See Remarks