EastGroup Properties (EastGroup Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is EastGroup Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EastGroup Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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EastGroup Properties (EastGroup Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » EastGroup Properties Inc (NYSE:EGP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EGO:Germany

Address

400 West Parkway Place, Suite 100, Ridgeland, MS, USA, 39157

Website

https://www.eastgroup.net

EastGroup Properties Inc is an equity real estate investment trust. It is engaged in the development, acquisition, and operation of industrial properties in major Sunbelt markets throughout the United States, primarily in the states of Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, and North Carolina. The company manages a portfolio of industrial properties. The vast majority of these properties are multi-tenant business distribution buildings that provide large warehousing and office space for customers. Properties located in Texas and Florida account for most of EastGroup's total real estate portfolio. The company derives its revenue in the form of rental income.

Executives

John F Coleman	officer: Executive Vice President	7003 PRESIDENTS DRIVE, STE 800, ORLANDO FL 32701
Richard Reid Dunbar	officer: Senior Vice President	190 EAST CAPITOL STREET, SUITE 400, JACKSON MS 39201
Eaves Hayden C Iii	director	201 S LAKE AVE, STE 501, PASADENA CA 91101
David Michael Fields	director	34 OAK TRAIL COURT, ALAMO CA 94507
Staci H. Tyler	officer: Senior VP, CAO and Secretary	EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC., 400 W. PARKWAY PLACE, SUITE 100, RIDGELAND MS 39157
Leland R Speed	director
Hoster David H Ii	director	188 EAST CAPITAL STREET, 300MONE JACKSON PLACE, JACKSON MS 39201
Katherine M Sandstrom	director	4600 SOUTH SYRACUSE STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Bailey H C Jr	director	1052 HIGHLAND COLONY PARKWAY, STE 202, RIDGELAND MS 39157
Brent Wood	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	188 E CAPITOL ST, 300 ONE JACKSON PL, JACKSON MS 39201
Donald F Colleran	director	942 SOUTH SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38117
D Pike Aloian	director	C/O ROTHSCHILD REALTY INC, 1251 AVENUEOF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Mary E Mccormick	director	188 E. CAPITOL STREET, 300 ONE JACKSON PLACE, JACKSON MS 39201
Bolton H Eric Jr	director
Marshall A Loeb	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC., 190 EAST CAPITOL STREET, JACKSON MS 39201