EMC (EMC) Predictability Rank

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What is EMC Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EMC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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EMC (EMC) Business Description

Industry

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Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.emc.com

EMC Corp is a Massachusetts corporation, incorporated in 1979. The Company together with its subsidiaries supports the businesses and service providers to transform information technology (IT) operations to an as a service model (ITaaS). The Company operates in three segments: EMC Information Infrastructure, Pivotal and VMware Virtual Infrastructure. The Company's information infrastructure provides a foundation for organizations to store, manage, protect, analyze and secure ever-increasing quantities of information, while at the same time improving business agility, lowering cost and increasing competitive advantage. VMware Virtual Infrastructure provides virtualization infrastructure solutions. Pivotal provides application and data infrastructure software, agile development services and data science consulting. The Company offers a comprehensive portfolio of enterprise storage systems and software - including high-end EMC VMAX and mid-tier EMC VNX unified storage and a portfolio of backup products that support enterprise application workloads. The Company's two additional storage families, EMC Isilon and EMC Atmos, are specifically designed to handle vast quantities of unstructured data. EMC supports a broad range of customers, including service providers, around the world - in every industry, in both public and private sectors, and of sizes ranging from the Fortune 500 to small business and individual consumers. The Company markets its products through direct sales and through multiple distribution channels. It has a direct sales presence throughout North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, South Africa and the Asia Pacific region. The Company also has agreements in place with many partners, including value-added resellers and distributors, cloud service providers, systems integrators, outsourcers, Independent Software Vendors ("ISVs"), and Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"). The Company competes with many companies in the markets it serve, including companies that offer IT products and services and others that offer specific information storage, protection, security, management and intelligence, data analytics or virtualization products or services.

Executives

Laura Sen	director	ONE MERCER ROAD, P.O. BOX 9601, NATICK MA 01760-9601
John R Egan	director	176 SOUTH ST., HOPKINTON MA 01748
Donald J Carty	director	C/O DELL INC., ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682-2244
Judith A Miscik	director	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C24-A68, DETROIT MI 48265
William D Green	director	C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
William F Scannell	officer: President,Global Sales/Cust Op	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Randolph L Cowen	director	176 SOUTH STREET HOPKINTON MA 01748
Howard D Elias	officer: President & COO, Glob Ent Srvs	C/O EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Paul T Dacier	officer: EVP & General Counsel	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Erin Mcsweeney	officer: EVP, Human Resources	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Teuber William J Jr	officer: Vice Chairman	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
James S Distasio	director	C/O EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 300 CADWELL DRIVE, BOSTON MA 01104
Paul Sagan	director	AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC, 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jeremy Burton	officer: President, Prod & Marketing	C/O SNOWFLAKE INC., 106 EAST BABCOCK STREET SUITE 3A, BOZEMAN MT 59715
David I Goulden	officer: CEO, EMCII	176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748