Endurance Specialty Holdings (Endurance Specialty Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Endurance Specialty Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Endurance Specialty Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Endurance Specialty Holdings (Endurance Specialty Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd (NYSE:ENH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.endurance.bm

Endurance Specialty Holdings is a property and casualty insurance holding company that underwrites its products on a global basis. Operations are organized into two business segments: insurance and reinsurance. Endurance generates the vast majority of its revenue from the insurance segment, where most of its revenue is derived from its agriculture insurance line. The reinsurance segment derives most of its revenue through its catastrophe insurance line. The company's key strategies include an emphasis on profitability, deep client relationships, risk management, and proactively managing its capital base.

Executives

Mark Silverstein	officer: Chief Investment Officer, ESL	C/O ENDURANCE SERVICES LIMITED, 333 WESTCHESTER AVE., WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Scott D Moore	director	PARTNERRE LTD, WELLESLEY HOUSE 90 PITTS BAY RD, PEMBROKE BERMUDA D0 HM 08
Galen R Barnes	director	ONE NATIONWIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
John V Delcol	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O ENDURANCE SPECIALTY HOLDINGS LTD, WELLESLEY HOUSE PITTS BAY RD, PEMBROKE BERMUDA D0 999999999
Steven W Carlsen	director
William H Bolinder	director, other: Lead Director
Morgan W Davis	director	80 SOUTH MAIN STREET, HANOVER NH 03755
Norman Barham	director	C/O ENDURANCE SERVICES LIMITED, 333 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Michael J Mcguire	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ENDURANCE SERVICES LIMITED, 333 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
William J Raver	director	C/O ENDURANCE SERVICES LIMITED, 333 WESTCHESTER AVE., WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Robert A Spass	director	ONE CHASE MANHATTAN PLAZA, 44TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Ian Michael Winchester	director	350 CENTRAL PARK WEST, APPT.15D, NEW YORK CITY NY 10025-6504
John A Kuhn	officer: CEO, Global Insurance	C/O ENDURANCE SERVICES LIMITED, 333 WESTCHESTER AVE., WEST BUILDING, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Carrie Rosorea	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	333 WESTCHESTER AVE., WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Nicholas C Marsh	director	MONTPELIER HOUSE, 94 PITTS BAY, PEMBROKE D0 HM08