EOG Resources (EOG Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is EOG Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EOG Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

EOG Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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EOG Resources (EOG Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » EOG Resources Inc (NYSE:EOG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EOG:Mexico EO5:Germany E1OG34:Brazil EOGR:Austria

Address

1111 Bagby, Sky Lobby 2, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.eogresources.com

EOG Resources is an oil and gas producer with acreage in several U.S. shale plays, including the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken. At the end of 2022, it reported net proved reserves of 4.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 908 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 at a ratio of 73% oil and natural gas liquids and 27% natural gas.

Executives

Helms Lloyd W Jr	officer: EVP, Operations	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jeffrey R. Leitzell	officer: EVP Exploration and Production	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Lynn A Dugle	director	4803 STONECROFT BOULEVARD, CHANTILLY VA 20151
Michael T. Kerr	director	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kenneth W. Boedeker	officer: EVP Exploration and Production	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Michael P Donaldson	officer: VP, General Counsel & Corp Sec	1111 BAGBY STREET, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Timothy K Driggers	officer: VP Accounting & Land Admin
Ann D. Janssen	officer: VP, Accounting	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ezra Y Yacob	officer: EVP Exploration and Production	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
Charles R Crisp	director	1301 MCKINNEY STE 700, HOUSTON TX 77010
Donald F Textor	director	P O BOX 4362, HOUSTON TX 772104362
Frank G Wisner	director	P O BOX 4362, HOUSTON TX 7721042362
Julie J Robertson	director	13135 S DAIRY ASHFORD, STE 800, SUGAR LAND TX 77478
David W Trice	officer: EVP, Exploration & Production	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002
William R. Thomas	officer: Sr. Executive VP, Exploitation	1111 BAGBY, SKY LOBBY 2, HOUSTON TX 77002