What is Evolution Petroleum Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Evolution Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Evolution Petroleum (Evolution Petroleum) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1155 Dairy Ashford Road, Suite 425, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
Evolution Petroleum Corp is an independent oil and gas company operating in the US. It is engaged primarily in the acquisition, exploitation, and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas, onshore in the United States. The company's revenues are primarily generated from its crude oil, natural gas and NGL production from the Jonah Field in Sublette County, Wyoming; the Williston Basin in North Dakota; the Barnett Shale located in North Texas; the Hamilton Dome Field in Wyoming; and the Delhi Field in Northeast Louisiana. The revenue generated by the company includes royalty, mineral and working interests.
Executives
| John Mark Bunch |
officer: COO |
1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Kelly Beatty |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Myra C Bierria |
director |
1155 DAIRY ASHFORD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Ryan Stash |
officer: SVP & CFO |
1155 DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Roderick A. Schultz |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
4621 PINERIDGE STREET, HOUSTON TX 77009 |
| Marjorie Anne Hargrave |
director |
999 18TH STREET, SUITE 1925N, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Jason E. Brown |
officer: President & CEO |
1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 6700, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Marran H. Ogilvie |
director |
599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| David Joe |
officer: VP, Chief Admin. Officer |
2500 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Jvl Advisors, L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
10,000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Randall D Keys |
officer: President, CFO & Treasurer |
3 HICKORY SHADOWS DR, HOUSTON TX 77055 |
| Peninsula Capital Management Inc |
director |
235 PINE STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| Kelly William Loyd |
director |
10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| William Dozier |
director |
3000 SAGE #1312, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Gene G Stoever |
director |
5415 GRAYSTONE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77069 |
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