Enstar Group (Enstar Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is Enstar Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Enstar Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Enstar Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Enstar Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Enstar Group (Enstar Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Enstar Group Ltd (NAS:ESGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ESGRO.PFD:USA ESGRP.PFD:USA

Address

22 Queen Street, Windsor Place, 3rd Floor, Hamilton, BMU, HM JX

Website

https://www.enstargroup.com

Enstar Group Ltd is a (re)insurance group that offers capital release solutions through its network of group companies. It seeks to create value by managing (re)insurance companies and portfolios of (re)insurance and other liability business in run-off and striving to generate an attractive risk-adjusted return from its investment portfolio. Its operations through four reportable segments: Run-off, Assumed Life, Investments, and Legacy Underwriting.

Executives

Silvester Dominic Francis Michael	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CASTLEWOOD HOLDINGS LIMITED, PO BOX HM 2267, WINDSOR PL., 18 QUEEN ST, HAMILTON D0 HM JX
Stone Point Capital Llc	director	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Poul Albaek Winslow	director	ONE QUEEN STREET EAST, SUITE 2500, TORONTO A6 M5C 2W5
Girish Ramanathan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O 22 QUEEN STREET, WINDSOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Obaidat Nazar Al	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O 22 QUEEN STREET, WINDSOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Stone Point Gp Ltd.	director	C/O CITCO TRUSTEES (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Laurence Plumb	officer: Chief of Business Operations	C/O QUEEN STREET, WINDSOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Seema Thaper	officer: Chief Risk Officer	C/O QUEEN STREET, WINDSOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
David Kang-wen Ni	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O 22 QUEEN STREET, WINDSOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Matthew Kirk	officer: Group Treasurer	C/O 22 QUEEN STREET, WINDSOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Sharon Anne Beesley	director	WINDSOR PLACE 3RD FLOOR, 22 QUEEN STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Robert J Campbell	director
Michael P Murphy	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568
Zachary Wolf	officer: Chief Financial Officer	411 FIFTH AVE. 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Kathleen Carbone	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1271 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020-1304