Esterline Technologies (Esterline Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Esterline Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Esterline Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Esterline Technologies (Esterline Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Esterline Technologies Corp (NYSE:ESL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500, 108th Avenue North East, Suite 1500, Bellevue, WA, USA, 98004

Website

http://www.esterline.com

Esterline Technologies Corp is a specialized manufacturing company serving aerospace and defense markets. It designs, produces, and markets engineered products and systems. The company operates in three technology segments: Avionics & Controls, Sensors & Systems, and Advanced Materials. Its products have been implemented into military and commercial aircraft and land-based platforms. Additional sales result from aftermarket repairs and spare parts for existing systems. Esterline has worldwide sales and distribution channels and will try to strengthen customer relationships by targeting specific segments. Approximately half of its revenue is derived from the United States. The remainder of sales come from Canada, France, United Kingdom, and other smaller regions.

Executives

Stephen M Nolan	officer: Executive VP, CFO	1300 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Donald E. Walther	officer: Executive VP, General Counsel	500 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 1500, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Mary L Howell	director	1101 PENNSYLVANIA AVE STE 400, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Curtis C Reusser	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	C/O GOODRICH CORPORATION, 850 LAGOON DRIVE, CHULA VISTA CA 91910
Scott Ernest Kuechle	director	C/O GOODRICH CORPORATION, 2730 WEST TYVOLA ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Michael J Covey	director	C/O POTLATCH CORPORATION, 601 W FIRST AVENUE, SUITE 1600, SPOKANE WA 99201
Michael J Cave	director	C/O ESTERLINE TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 500 108TH AVE NE, SUITE 1500, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Steven T Romick	10 percent owner	11400 W OLYMPIC BLVD, STE 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
Mark Landecker	10 percent owner	11400 W. OLYMPIC BLVD., STE. 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
J Richard Atwood	10 percent owner
Brian A. Selmo	10 percent owner	11400 W. OLYMPIC BLVD., STE. 1200, LOS ANGELES CA 90064
Gary E Pruitt	director	701 WESTERN AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91201
Winship Henry Ward Iv	director	PO BOX 8614, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Jerry D Leitman	director
Richard Bradley Lawrence	director, officer: Executive Chairman	500 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 1500, BELLEVUE WA 98004