Essent Group (Essent Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Essent Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Essent Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Essent Group (Essent Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Essent Group Ltd (NYSE:ESNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EG0:Germany

Address

2 Church Street, Clarendon House, Hamilton, BMU, HM 11

Website

https://ir.essentgroup.com

Essent Group Ltd is a private mortgage insurance company in the United States. Essent provides credit protection to lenders and mortgage investors by covering a portion of the unpaid principal balance of a mortgage and certain related expenses in the event of a default. By providing capital to mitigate mortgage credit risk, the company allows lenders to make additional mortgage financing available to prospective homeowners. Essent writes mortgage guaranty coverage in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Executives

Mary Lourdes Gibbons	officer: Sr. VP, CLO & Assit. Secretary	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Vijay Bhasin	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Risk Officer	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
David B Weinstock	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Douglas J Pauls	director	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Aditya Dutt	director	RENAISSANCE HOUSE, 12 CROW LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 19
Anu Karna	director	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Robert Glanville	director	C/O PINE BROOK ROAD PARTNERS LLC, 42ND STREET, 50TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10165
Mark Casale	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Mcalee Lawrence E Jr	officer: Sr. VP & CFO	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
William Spiegel	director	C/O MONTOPELIER RE HOLDINGS LTD, MINTFLOER PLACE 8 PAR LA VILLE RD, HAMILTON BERMUDA D0 HM 08
Roy James Kasmar	director	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Joseph Hissong	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Jeff Cashmer	officer: SVP & Chief Business Officer	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Christopher G Curran	officer: SVP, Corporate Development	C/O ESSENT GROUP LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Jane Chwick	director	C/O MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS, INC., 299 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10171