Espey Manufacturing & Electronics (Espey Manufacturing & Electronics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Espey Manufacturing & Electronics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Espey Manufacturing & Electronics (Espey Manufacturing & Electronics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Corp (AMEX:ESP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

233 Ballston Avenue, Saratoga Springs, NY, USA, 12866

Website

https://www.espey.com

Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Corp designs, develops, tests, and manufactures specialized military and rugged industrial power supplies and transformers for use in harsh or severe environment applications. Its products and solutions include power converters, power conditioning, high-voltage radar, contract manufacturing, custom engineering, and others. The applications of these products include AC and DC locomotives, shipboard power, shipboard radar, airborne power, ground-based radar, and ground mobile power.

Executives

Nancy Koskey Patzwahl	director	81 OLD LANE, CLAVERACK NY 12513
Peggy A Murphy	officer: Corporate Secretary	91 FEEDER DAM RD, S GLENSFALLS NY 12803
Katrina Leonore Sparano	officer: Assistant Treasurer	670 ACLAND BLVD., BALLSTON SPA NY 12020
Howard M Pinsley	director, officer: President/CEO, other: Chairman of the Board	233 BALLSTON AVE., SARATOGA SPRINGS NY 12866
Barry Pinsley	director	6101 PELICAN BAY BLVD., NAPLES FL 34108
Alvin O Sabo	director	51 ISLAND VIEW ROAD, COHOES NY 12047
Paul J Corr	director	87 RAILROAD PLACE, UNIT 306, SARATOGA SPRINGS NY 12866
David A Oneil	officer: Treasurer	14 BRIDGET CIRCLE, COHOES NY 12047
Sexauer Roger Nicholas Ii	director	2820 BENNETT POINT RD., QUEENSTOWN MD 21658
Carl Helmetag	director	330 SEA VIEW, RIVERSIDE RI 02915
Enright Patrick Thomas Jr.	director, officer: President and CEO	3111 SQUAW CREEK TRAIL, BALLSTON SPA NY 12020
Michael W Wool	director	131 HILLS POINT RD, CHARLOTTE VT 05402
St Pierre Mark Francis	officer: President	13 SECLUDED RIDGE, SOUTHWICK MA 01077
Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. Employee Retirement Plan & Trust	10 percent owner, other: Retirement Plan Trust	233 BALLSTON AVE., SARATOGA SPRINGS NY 12866
Seymour Saslow	director	199 CAROLINE ST, SARATOGA SPRINGS NY 12866