Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo (Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo) Predictability Rank

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What is Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo (Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo (NYSE:ETO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Two International Place, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.eatonvance.com

Eaton Vance Tax-advtgd Global Divid Oppo is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide a high level of after-tax total return consisting of tax-advantaged dividend income and capital appreciation. The fund pursues its objective by investing in dividend-paying common and preferred stocks. The portfolio of investments consists of capital markets, chemicals, diversified, beverages, banks, electric utilities, oil, gas and consumable fuels, personal products, and other areas.

Executives

Derek Digregorio	other: Portfolio Manager	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Anchal Pachnanda	officer: Officer	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Williams Ray Kelly Jr	officer: President	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Keith Quinton	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Alan C. Bowser	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Nicholas Dilorenzo	officer: Secretary	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Joseph M Mehlman	officer: Portfolio Manager	MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 20, NEW YORK NY 10036
Nancy A Wiser	other: Trustee	WELLS FARGO FUNDS MANAGEMENT, 200 BERKELEY STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Jill Damon	officer: Secretary	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Kimberly M Roessiger	officer: Secretary	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Deidre E Walsh	officer: Vice President	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Marcus L. Smith	other: Trustee	555 17TH STREET, SUITE 3700, DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC., DENVER CO 80202
Froio Richard F Sr	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O BISYS FUND SERVICES, 60 STATE ST., BOSTON MA 02129
Mark R Fetting	other: Trustee	LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Scott E Wennerholm	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110

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