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Exar (EXAR) Predictability Rank


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What is Exar Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Exar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Exar Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Exar's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Exar (EXAR) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Exar Corp was incorporated in California in April 1971 and was reincorporated in Delaware in 1991. The Company designs, develops and markets high performance analog mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs) and sub-system solutions for the Industrial and Embedded Systems, High-End Consumer and Infrastructure markets. Applying both analog and digital technologies, its products are deployed in a applications such as industrial, instrumentation and medical equipment, networking and telecommunication systems, servers, enterprise storage systems, flat panel displays, LED lighting solutions, set top boxes and digital video recorders. It provides customers with a breadth of component products and sub-system solutions based on silicon integration. The Company's product portfolio includes Connectivity, Power Management, High Performance Analog, Processors, Flat Panel Display and LED lighting. The Company markets its products with sales offices and personnel located throughout the Americas, Europe, and Asia. Its products are also sold through channel partners, including distributors and manufacturers' representatives. These channel partners are assisted and managed by its regional sales teams. The Company sells products into three primary markets: Industrial and Embedded Systems, High-End Consumer and Infrastructure. Its products are organized into six primary product lines, which allow product definition based on market opportunities and trends. Its product lines include Connectivity, Power Management, High Performance Analog, Processors, Flat Panel Display and LED lighting. Competitors in its Industrial and Embedded Systems and Infrastructure markets include companies such as Analog Devices, Inc., Integrated Device Technology, Inc., Intersil Corporation, Linear Technology Corporation, Maxim Integrated Products, Inc., Monolithic Power Systems, NXP B.V., Silicon Labs, Texas Instruments Incorporated, Micrel Incorporated, Ambarella, Inc., HiSilicon Technologies Co., Ltd., Cavium Networks and Intel. Competitors in High-End Consumer products include companies such as Texas Instruments Incorporated, Intersil Corporation, Chipone, Novatek Microelectronics Corporation and Global Mixed-mode Technology, Inc.
Executives
Gary Meyers director
Ryan A Benton director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 48720 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Behrooz L. Abdi director 1875 CHARLESTON ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
James Lougheed officer: Sr. VP, Sales & Marketing 48720 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Jeffrey Jacobowitz director C/O ROBOTTI & COMPANY, 52 VANDERBILT AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Louis Dinardo officer: President and CEO 48720 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Parviz Ghaffaripour other: Sr VP & GM, Component Products
Soros Fund Management Llc 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH STREET, FLOOR 29, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert Soros 10 percent owner C/O SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC, 250 WEST 55TH STREET, FLOOR 38, NEW YORK NY 10019
George Soros 10 percent owner C/O SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC, 250 WEST 55TH STREET, FLOOR 29, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kevin S Bauer officer: CFO 980 ROCK AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95131
Soros Jonathan T Allan 10 percent owner C/O JS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, FLOOR 40, NEW YORK NY 10106
Juan Oscar Rodriguez director 5200 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
John S Mcfarlane director C/O PITNEY BOWES, 1 ELMCROFT RD, STAMFORD CT 06926
Guy W Adams director 433 N. CAMDEN DR., #810, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210

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