Express, (Express,) Predictability Rank

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What is Express, Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Express, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Express, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Express, (Express,) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Express, Inc. (OTCPK:EXPRQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Express Drive, Columbus, OH, USA, 43230

Website

https://www.express.com

Express, Inc. is a United States-based specialty apparel retailer. It offers apparel and accessories for work, casual, jeanswear, and going-out. The company also sells the products through its e-commerce website and mobile app, as well as through franchisees who operate company locations in Latin America according to the franchise agreements. It derives revenue from the sales of apparel, accessories and other products, of which a majority of the revenue from the sale of apparel.

Executives

Stewart Glendinning	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1 EXPRESS DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Yehuda Shmidman	director	C/O ICONIX BRAND GROUP, INC., 1450 BROADWAY, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Satish Mehta	director	C/O CHEWY, INC., 7700 WEST SUNRISE BLVD, PLANTATION FL 33322
Jason N Judd	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	50 N THIRD ST, NEWARK OH 43055
Patricia E Lopez	director	333 LUDLOW ST, STAMFORD CT 06902
Antonio Lucio	director	C/O EXPRESS INC., 1 EXPRESS DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Laurel Krueger	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	ONE EXPRESS DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Periclis Pericleous	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	1 EXPRESS DR., COLUMBUS OH 43230
Matthew C Moellering	officer: EVP, CAO,CFO, Treasurer & Sec.	C/O EXPRESS PARENT LLC, ONE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Malissa Akay	officer: EVP, Chief Merch. Officer	1 EXPRESS DR., COLUMBUS OH 43230
Sara Tervo	officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer	1 EXPRESS DR., COLUMBUS OH 43230
Timothy G Baxter	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O EXPRESS, INC., 1 EXPRESS DR., COLUMBUS OH 43230
Contrarius Investment Management Ltd	10 percent owner	2 BOND STREET, ST. HELIER Y9 JE2 3NP
Contrarius Investment Management (bermuda) Ltd	10 percent owner	VICTORIA PLACE, 5TH FLOOR, 31 VICTORIA STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 10
James A Hilt	officer: EVP, CMO, and ECommerce	1 EXPRESS DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43230